Recession of 1737
| Time | 1737 AN-1738 AN |
|---|---|
| Duration | 6+ months |
| Location | |
| Type | Economic recession |
| Cause |
|
| Outcome |
|
The Recession of 1737 was a significant global economic downturn that began in the second quarter of 1737 AN, initially affecting Raspur Pact nations before spreading to the broader global economy. The crisis, triggered by the sudden collapse of Normark and Anahuaco combined with the ongoing naval blockade of the Benacian continent, resulted in widespread trade disruptions and financial market instability that persisted well into 1738 AN.
Within the Raspur Pact, the recession's impact varied significantly. Nouvelle Alexandrie experienced a technical recession with GDP contracting 1.1% and 0.1% in consecutive quarters, while Oportia faced a more severe 2.5% cumulative GDP decline. Natopia, despite its economic diversification, saw a 0.7% GDP contraction and rising unemployment. The crisis soon spread beyond the Pact's borders, affecting nations like Aerla, where unemployment reached 3.1% amid collapsing port activity, and Senya, whose trade-dependent economy entered recession despite lacking Pact membership. Even the Imperial Federation, while maintaining overall stability, experienced significant regional recessions in its Keltian territories.
The recession revealed structural vulnerabilities in global trade networks and highlighted the interconnected nature of the modern economy. Major trading hubs including Aerla's Port Aerla and Nouvelle Alexandrie's Port of Wechuahuasi experienced unprecedented declines in activity, with container throughput falling by up to 45% in some locations. Financial markets across affected nations saw substantial declines, with stock exchanges recording losses between 10% and 22% in market capitalization. Governments responded with various monetary and fiscal measures, including interest rate reductions, industry support programs, and worker retraining initiatives, though recovery patterns varied significantly by region and economic sector.
The crisis ultimately led to increased economic cooperation among affected nations, particularly within the Raspur Pact, as they worked to stabilize their economies and develop more resilient trade networks. While some nations began showing signs of recovery by IV.1738 AN, others continued to grapple with the recession's effects well into the following year, leading to lasting changes in global trade patterns and economic relationships.
Causes
The Recession of 1737 emerged from an unprecedented convergence of geopolitical crises and economic disruptions that exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global trading system. The primary catalyst was the sudden dissolution of two major Raspur Pact powers in eastern Keltia, Normark and the Anahuaco Empire. Both which together had accounted for approximately 22% of inter-Pact trade volume and served as crucial links in transcontinental shipping routes. This collapse coincided with the intensification of the naval blockade of Benacia by Shirerithian forces of the Benacian Union, which severed key maritime trading lanes and forced costly rerouting of commercial shipping. This deeply impacted the significant amounts of trade between Shireroth, the Benacian Union, and the rest of the Raspur Pact and the world.
The economic impact was amplified by pre-existing structural weaknesses in several major economies. The Suren Confederacy was still recovering from its civil war, while Oportia had developed a dangerous overreliance on exports to Normark and Anahuaco, with these markets accounting for 35% of its total export volume. Even stable economies like Nouvelle Alexandrie and Natopia had significant exposure through their financial sectors, particularly through defaulted Shirerithian sovereign debt that exceeded ₢45 billion. The Imperial Federation, despite its overall resilience, saw its Keltian territories experience severe local recessions due to their proximity to collapsed markets.
The crisis was further exacerbated by the breakdown of the Trans-Keltian Express railway network, which had previously handled 40% of transcontinental freight traffic in Keltia. This disruption forced a sudden shift to maritime shipping at precisely the moment when naval blockades and piracy were making sea routes more expensive and dangerous. The resulting logistics crisis led to a 45% increase in average shipping costs across major routes, contributing to inflationary pressures that would strain government response efforts.
Collapse of Normark and Anahuaco
Normark, a key Raspur Pact member controlling crucial northern shipping lanes and a key link for the Trans-Keltian Express, had been experiencing mounting internal pressures due to administrative paralysis and declining institutional effectiveness. Its collapse disrupted vital trade routes that had connected Natopia's eastern territories with its western holdings, while also severing important financial links that had facilitated trade financing across northern Keltia.
The Anahuaco Empire's implosion proved equally devastating, particularly given its role as a major commodity exporter and industrial manufacturer. The empire's dissolution created an immediate supply shock in key industrial materials, while also stranding significant foreign investments from Constancia and other Raspur Pact allies. The resulting refugee crisis saw over 20 million displaced persons seek shelter in neighboring states such as Moorland and Nouvelle Alexandrie, straining social services and creating additional economic pressures in receiving nations.
The combined effect of these collapses extended far beyond immediate trade disruption. The loss of both powers created a significant security vacuum in eastern Keltia, leading to increased insurance costs for maritime trade and requiring costly military deployments by remaining Raspur Pact members to secure vital shipping lanes. The sudden disappearance of these markets also forced a rapid and disruptive reorientation of regional trade patterns, with particularly severe impacts on specialized manufacturing networks that had developed around Anahuaco's industrial base.
The naval blockade of Benacia by Shirerithian forces proved particularly damaging given its timing coincident with the eastern Keltian crisis. By 1737 AN, the blockade had achieved nearly 80% effectiveness in restricting maritime access to Benacian ports, forcing ships to either risk interception or take lengthy and expensive detours. The average transit time for goods moving between eastern and western Micras increased by 45%, while insurance premiums for ships operating in affected waters rose by up to 300%.
The blockade's impact was magnified by its disruption of established trade patterns just as markets were attempting to adjust to the loss of Normark and Anahuaco. The resulting bottlenecks in global shipping created severe supply chain disruptions that affected even nations not directly involved in the conflict. Manufacturing centers in many nations like Nouvelle Alexandrie, Oportia, and others faced critical shortages of key industrial inputs, while agricultural exporters struggled to reach traditional markets.
Financial market disruptions
The financial aspects of the crisis were particularly severe due to the complex web of sovereign debt and trade financing arrangements that had underpinned global commerce. The Shirerithian government's default on ₢25 billion in loans to Raspur Pact nations created immediate strains in the banking sectors of Nouvelle Alexandrie and Natopia, where many of these obligations were held. This default, combined with growing uncertainty about regional stability, triggered a broader reassessment of risk that led to sharp increases in borrowing costs for both governments and private enterprises. The crisis in sovereign debt markets quickly spread to corporate bonds and trade financing instruments. Interest rate spreads on corporate debt increased by an average of 350 basis points across affected markets, while the availability of trade financing fell by approximately 60%. This credit crunch particularly affected small and medium-sized enterprises, forcing many into bankruptcy and contributing to rising unemployment.
Supply chain disruptions
The recession revealed critical vulnerabilities in global supply networks that had developed during previous decades of stability and growth. The simultaneous disruption of maritime and rail transport routes forced rapid and costly adjustments to established supply chains. The Port of Wechuahuasi in Nouvelle Alexandrie saw container throughput fall by 30%, while the Port of Vanie in Oportia experienced an even steeper 45% decline. The collapse of the Trans-Keltian Express railway system eliminated a crucial alternative to maritime shipping just when it was most needed, affecting Mercury, Aerla, and Moorland.
Manufacturing industries proved particularly vulnerable to these disruptions. Complex production networks that had developed around Anahuaco's industrial base were severely disrupted, while the semiconductor industry in Nouvelle Alexandrie's Santander region saw capacity utilization fall to 65% due to difficulties in obtaining specialized inputs. The automotive and electronics sectors across multiple nations reported production delays and temporary shutdowns as just-in-time inventory systems proved unable to cope with extended transit times and unreliable deliveries.
Regional market instability
Beyond the immediate impact zones, the recession triggered broader regional instability that complicated recovery efforts. The Suren Confederacy, already weakened by civil conflict, saw industrial output fall by 35% as foreign investment dried up. The Imperial Federation's Keltian territories experienced severe local recessions despite the federation's overall stability. Even nations like Lac Glacei, initially appearing insulated from the crisis, found themselves drawn in through financial market connections and trade relationship disruptions.
The crisis also exposed the limitations of existing regional economic integration mechanisms. The Euran Economic Union's response capabilities were tested by the need to coordinate support for multiple struggling members simultaneously, while the Raspur Pact's economic cooperation frameworks proved insufficient to prevent the cascade of economic troubles among its members, especially with the ongoing conflict between Shireroth and the Bastion Union and its current institutional decay. This institutional stress led to calls for reform and deeper integration among surviving economic blocs, though implementation of such changes would extend well beyond the immediate crisis period.
Impact
The Recession of 1737 marked a significant disruption to the global economy, with effects varying dramatically across regions and economic sectors. The initial shock, triggered by the collapse of Normark and Anahuaco, cascade through international trade networks with particular severity in export-dependent economies. Nations heavily integrated into global trade networks, such as Raspur Pact nations and nations heavily engaged in trade with them, experienced sharp contractions in manufacturing output and trade volumes, while more diversified economies like Natopia demonstrated greater resilience.
The recession's impact was most severely felt in the maritime trade and manufacturing sectors, with major ports across multiple continents reporting throughput declines of 20-45%. Urban unemployment rose significantly, particularly in industrial centers, though the reported figures often masked deeper economic distress in rural areas and among marginalized populations. Financial markets experienced substantial volatility, with stock exchanges across affected nations seeing declines ranging from 10% to 22% in market capitalization.
Recovery began to materialize between IV.1738 AN and XII.1738 AN, driven by coordinated interventions from major economic powers and regional blocs. The Raspur Pact played a particularly crucial role in stabilizing member economies through strategic credit facilities and technical assistance programs. While some nations, particularly those with more diversified economies or stronger institutional frameworks, emerged from the recession by mid-1738 AN, others continued to grapple with its aftereffects well into the following year. The crisis ultimately led to increased economic integration among many of the nations that experienced the recession.
Aerla
The collapse of Normark, combined with the slowdown of commerce from Nouvelle Alexandrie, resulted in a vast economic downturn in Aerla. Operations at the docks of Port Aerla came to an almost complete standstill as imports and exports grinded to a halt, as well as concerns rose over pirate raids on commerce ships entering the Bay of Makonnia. Unemployment in Aerla rose to almost 3.1% by end of 1737 AN. The closure of the Trans-Keltian Express in 1737 AN would lead to the Grand Eastern Railway Corporation, the company in charge of fares and maintenance of the Aerlan sections of the railroad, to become insolvent and declare bankruptcy in first days of 1738 AN. The Aerlan rail industry took this bankruptcy hard, leading to fare increases across the entire nation.
The nation also had to deal with a dramatic influx of refugees entering the country due to the collapse of both Normark and Cerulea. Most of these refugees were sent to camps in the Transcaledonian Territory for temporary accommodation. This led to even less government spending going towards the unemployment and welfare networks, alienating the already struggling working-class population. The onset of the 1738 NKRS outbreak also crippled Aerla's neighbor San Lucido (however the virus did not have as much impact in Aerla itself, as most Aerlans had developed immunity from the virus over the previous centuries).
With the upcoming elections in 1740 AN, many outlets expressed their doubts about a repeat Reformist victory. Many Conservative politicians began to campaign on a platform of economic reconstruction, the creation of more jobs for the Aerlan populace, and the removal of refugees from Transcaledonia.
Benacian Union
At the outbreak of the Shiro-Benacian War in 1733, the Union-State boasted one of the most heavily industrialised economies in the Raspur Pact. However, the demands of a protracted, large-scale conflict swiftly overwhelmed its economic capacity. The war imposed extraordinary strains on production, trade, and public finances, leading to significant long-term consequences.
As such the Benacian Union was already heavily beleaguered by the time the effects of the East Keltian Collapse ripped through its few remaining perilous linkages with the outside world.
Constancia
Significant political, foreign policy, economic, and even military capital had been expended and invested in the Anahuaco Empire, due to the Imperial and colonial designs of the elites of the Imperial State. Despite opposition from the elected government, this Eastern Keltian Gambit continued, and when things went sour, due to the implosion and collapse of Normark and Anahuaco, it became very politically expedient and convenient to blame the entire mess on the allegedly-dithering, distracted, analysis-paralysis government. Public anguish was muted due to scheduled elections to be held at the close of 1737 AN.
Daau
Having entered a state of civil war in Mataba and further, economy in Daau suffered due to the resources being shifted to produce wartime materials alongside foreign trade hitting a new low due to recent amendments to the Dauian foreign trade policies.
The Hexarchy
While not directly connected to the events befalling the other major powers of Micras, The Hexarchy fell into an economic depression unlike any suffered in its 50-year history. After a period of slowing growth past 1725 AN, the country found itself ill-prepared to face any pressing national crises. This came in the mid-1730's with the sudden abandonment of Lysstyrer by its inhabitants and removal of its entire infrastructure nearly overnight. This caused an economic collapse in the country's periphery, with few exceptions (such as the now-exclave of New Nippuur far to the north). The resulting economic crisis, the ill health of the Praetor Sargon Azulpolassar, and weakened central government lead to a lack of success in redeveloping these regions. These combined shocks after this shock led to a crippling depression in these regions, causing populations to move back to the country's core regions. The rise of regionalism caused further economic turmoil in the country's few megacities, and the strained national logistics network fell once again to dependence on maritime areas, causing inland economies to further stagnate.
This led to a general decline in the country's central power, leading to its near-absence on the world stage for an entire decade. The Recession of 1737 further affected the Hexarchy's external trade to falter. With its most important driver of economic growth decisively undermined, the already-weakened country slipped into a solid economic depression later in that year. With the Praetor's declining health and the fracturing of national unity due to his own weakened health, the country would not recover before the end of 1738 AN, leading to emigration of citizens from the periphery and other attached regions to other prosperous parts of the country (including Dromosker Island) or further abroad.
The Imperial Federation
The Imperial Federation, while on the whole not experiencing recession during 1737 AN, did see its economic growth slow down on a macro level. On the whole, the new period of peace allowed the central government to immediately shift to economic/infrastructure initiatives, allowing it to dodge the worst of the effects as a whole. Recessions did happen regionally, however, and those hit hard and fast between its holdings on mainland Keltia and southern Eura.
The entirety of its territories on mainland Keltia were badly affected according to their proximity to the northern Strait of Haifa. The recession in Haifan lands (those now being Haifa, Geneva, and Blore Heath) was a strange one, characterized by four primary things: The ultimate (although localized) victory of joint Ralgonese-Bassarid forces in the Wars of the Dispossessed across the southern banks of the Straits of Haifa, the Ralgonese loss of territory (allowing concentration of local Imperial assets there), the dual migrant/refugee influx from the Green, newly acquired Bassarid lands, and from the collapsed Normark/Anahuaco, and the enhancement of already-heavy stimulus in advance already earmarked for postwar reconstruction efforts.
While Haifa's situation was quickly salvaged thanks to good preparation and advanced funding, Eternia and its surrounding Ralgonese territories weren't as fortunate. Depending heavily on tourism and trade from Eura, the economy suffered when the rest of the continent experienced recession as well. While stimulus measures were applied here, the polar country's own economic woes would be considerably longer-lasting than faraway Haifa. It would take at least a year for the local economy to fully recover, and longer for its central treasury to fill its coffers due to fresh debts owed to the central government in Gondolin.
Kurum Ash-Sharqia
In 1731 AN, the MCS approved a substantial land claim, extending Kurum Ash-Sharqia to the 100th meridian. This decision followed meticulous preparation by the Surveying and Expansion Commission. However, the costs associated with developing the new territories placed a significant strain on the state budget, resulting in heightened inflation and sluggish economic growth. These financial difficulties were further intensified by the Recession of 1737.
Lac Glacei
Lac Glacei's close ties with the Imperial Federation and its cooperation with the Mala First Nation caused a significant recession for the Grand Duchy as resources had to be funneled to Keltia to stabilize the region following the federation's withdrawal from large portions of the Strait of Haifa. A significant loss of trade occurred as a result of the withdrawal, and the Malan economy, which had been thriving on the increased import/export business, ground to a halt overnight. The Grand Duchy quickly moved to shift emergency funds to the area to prop up struggling industries, but this caused serious inflation in Apollonia as the cost of goods skyrocketed and investors scrambled to find new sources of goods. The resulting catastrophe nearly bankrupted the government and caused a sharp recession for the Lac Glaceian economy. Struggling to keep its overseas colonies supported, especially in Mala, the government authorized the sale of rural lands in Arctic portion of Northworthy to Vegno, collectively known as the Northern Purchase. While this secured the needed funds for the government, it resulted in some complaints at home, as portions of the population felt that the overseas colonies should have been sacrificed in lieu of the mainland.
Mercury
Mercury officially entered a period of recession in early 1738 AN, having lost its close trading links with neighbouring Normark, and further exacerbated by the knock-on effects from Senya's recession due to their ties via the Xäiville Convention.
Moorland
The economy of Moorland suffered an odd mixture of inflation but also economic growth as a result of the collapse of its two major neighbors; Anahuaco and Normark, with a partial collapse in the Imperial Federation's territory in Haifa, with a loss of most holdings in that area. The loss of trade with both these nations resulted in a significant loss of economic revenue, and the influx of refugees from Anahuaco saw a sharp rise in inflation as demand for goods - especially food - skyrocketed. But the added demand for goods from Moorland to neighboring communities helped spur economic growth in many areas, with factories reporting record production levels and farmers reporting increased demand for products. Export declines in Natopia and Nouvelle Alexandrie shifted the demand for goods from imports to domestic production, and increased trade with neighboring Mercury. The loss of the Normark route of the Trans-Keltian Express also served to isolate Moorland's economy further, increasing a reliance on goods traded closer to home. King MacMartin promised to explore new trading partnerships in order to alleviate inflation.
The Invasion of San Lucido and loss of Vegnese Keltia dealt a further blow to the Trans-Keltian Express and trade routes along the northern coast. The loss hastened the isolation of Moorland and Mercury in the northeast corner of the continent and forced the two neighbors to re-evaluate their relationship and reliance on each other's economies. For Moorland, whose currency was pegged to that of Mercury, it saw a similar recession. However, the stronger militaristic footing of Moorland helped to offset this as the defense industry ramped up production in anticipation of more frequent attacks from the Confederacy of the Dispossessed as they gain footing elsewhere.
Natopia
While not officially entering a recession, Natopia experienced a significant economic slowdown. The country's GDP declined by 0.7% cumulatively over two quarters, a notable deceleration for an economy that had been experiencing steady growth. Export industries, while affected, showed more resilience due to the country's diverse trading partnerships. Domestic consumption remained relatively stable, helping to offset some of the losses in the export sectors. The unemployment rate increased to 3.3%, a more modest rise compared to Nouvelle Alexandrie and Oportia. This relatively lower impact was partly due to Natopia's more diversified economy and its ability to maintain stability in domestic-oriented industries while pivoting some trade relationships away from the collapsed Normark market.
The Natopian stock market saw a 10% decline, the least severe among the three main affected countries. This reflected investor perception of Natopia as a relatively stable economy despite the economic difficulties. Bond yields and currency values showed more stability compared to other affected nations.
Nouvelle Alexandrie
Nouvelle Alexandrie experienced a moderate economic contraction in 1737, with GDP declining by 1.1% in Q2 and a further 0.1% in Q3[1], marking the nation's first technical recession since reunification. The manufacturing sector bore the heaviest impact, with industrial output dropping by 15% nationwide. Luxury goods, traditionally a cornerstone of New Alexandrian exports and imports, saw production fall by 25%, while the high-end electronics sector experienced a 20% decline in output. The semiconductor industry, centered in Santander, reported capacity utilization falling to 65%, its lowest level in five years. Several major manufacturers announced temporary plant closures affecting over 25,000 workers.
The maritime trade sector experienced severe disruption, particularly evident at the Port of Wechuahuasi in Santander. Once the nation's premier international trading hub, the port saw activity plummet by 30%, with daily container throughput falling from 45,000 TEUs to just 31,500 TEUs. Over 50,000 empty containers accumulated in storage yards as long-distance trade routes with Normark and Anahuaco abruptly terminated. The port authority reported a 40% reduction in customs revenue, while associated logistics companies laid off approximately 3,000 workers. Secondary ports like Puerto Cordoba and Nueva Vandia experienced similar declines, though at slightly lower rates of 20-25%.
Despite the overall economic downturn, Nouvelle Alexandrie exhibited an unusual resilience in domestic consumption that helped prevent a deeper recession. The Retail Sales Index rose by 4 points to 112, defying typical recession trends. This resilience was partly attributed to a 2.1% increase in average hourly earnings, which outpaced the inflation rate of 3.1%, resulting in a 3.2% boost to real disposable income for many middle-class families. The service sector proved particularly robust, with hospitality and domestic tourism actually growing by 1.8% as New Alexandrians opted for local travel over international destinations. Consumer confidence, while declined, remained above the critical 50-point threshold at 54.6 points.
In the labor market, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, representing a significant increase from the pre-recession level of 2.8% but lower than in some neighboring countries. The impact varied significantly by region and sector - manufacturing centers like Santander and Wechua Nation saw unemployment reach 4.5%, while service-oriented regions like South Lyrica and Valencia maintained rates below 3%. Youth unemployment emerged as a particular concern, reaching 7.2% nationally. However, the overall impact was moderated by the resilience of domestic-oriented sectors and government job creation initiatives, including a $2 billion workforce development program that provided retraining for 15,000 displaced workers.
Financial markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nouvelle Alexandrie Stock Exchange seeing a 15% decline that erased approximately $95 billion in market capitalization. Banking stocks were particularly affected, falling by an average of 22%. The Federal Bank of Nouvelle Alexandrie responded aggressively, lowering the Federal Funds Rate to 2.25% and implementing a $30 billion market stabilization program. Corporate bond spreads widened significantly, with investment-grade yields rising by 150 basis points. Multiple class-action lawsuits, representing over $10 billion in claimed damages, were filed against major banks and investment firms accused of exacerbating the economic crisis through risky lending practices or inadequate risk management. The Federal Financial Oversight Commission launched investigations into three major investment banks regarding their pre-recession risk management practices and launched new regulatory guidelines for systemically important financial institutions.
Oportia
Oportia was the hardest hit among the three main affected nations, experiencing a severe economic downturn that threatened to undermine decades of economic development. The country's GDP contracted by a cumulative 2.5% over two quarters, more than double the contraction seen in Nouvelle Alexandrie, with heavy industry and manufacturing bearing the brunt of the collapse. The nation's traditional economic strengths in shipbuilding, precision machinery, and advanced electronics manufacturing suffered catastrophic declines, with production falling by up to 40% in some sectors. Export-oriented manufacturing sectors saw particularly steep declines due to the nation's heavy reliance on exports, especially to Normark and Anahuaco, which had previously accounted for 35% of Oportia's total export market.
The Port of Vanie, the nation's primary trading hub, experienced an unprecedented 45% reduction in container throughput, leading to the temporary closure of two of its five main terminals. This disruption rippled through the entire logistics sector, with major shipping companies reducing or suspending services to Oportian ports. The resulting bottlenecks and increased shipping costs forced many manufacturers to either drastically reduce production or seek costly alternative trade routes, further straining already stressed profit margins. Small and medium-sized enterprises were particularly vulnerable, with over 200 companies declaring bankruptcy within the first three months of the crisis.
Domestic consumption saw a sharp decline as rising unemployment and economic uncertainty led to decreased consumer spending, with retail sales falling by 18% year-over-year. Unemployment in Oportia reached 5.2%, the highest among the three countries, indicating significant job losses across various sectors. The manufacturing belt in the country's southwest was particularly affected, with some communities experiencing unemployment rates exceeding 12%. The country struggled to reallocate workers from declining export-oriented industries to other sectors of the economy, leading to increased labor migration to urban centers and growing social tensions. Youth unemployment became particularly problematic, reaching 15.8%, raising concerns about long-term economic and social stability.
The Vanie Stock Exchange experienced a sharp 22% decline, the most severe among the affected countries, wiping out nearly $50 billion in market capitalization. This substantial drop reflected deep investor concerns about the country's economic prospects and the long-term impact of the trade disruptions. Bond yields and currency values fluctuated significantly as investors reassessed risk, with the Oportian Merite falling to historic lows against major trading currencies. The Oportian Central Bank was forced to intervene repeatedly to stabilize the currency, depleting foreign exchange reserves by approximately 18%. Corporate bond defaults reached their highest level in fifteen years, particularly among manufacturing and logistics companies, leading to a severe credit crunch that further complicated recovery efforts.
The government's response included emergency measures such as a $15 billion industry support package, worker retraining programs, and expanded unemployment benefits, though these efforts were hampered by declining tax revenues and growing budget deficits. Federal Representative Galilea Montijo established a Crisis Management Task Force to coordinate recovery efforts, but faced significant challenges in implementing effective solutions given the global nature of the economic disruption. Regional development banks reported a 60% increase in emergency lending applications, highlighting the severe liquidity challenges facing the business sector.
Sanama
Senya
Despite not being a member of the Raspur Pact, Senya's economy, which was highly reliant on trade with neighbouring countries, including Natopia, also fell into recession. Senya's economy had already been declining thanks to mismanagement from the incumbent government, and the recession hit hard on many working people, compounding existing frustrations with the government.
Shireroth
The 1737 recession had profound and far-reaching effects on Shireroth, exacerbating existing political, social, and economic tensions within the Imperial Republic. Triggered by the financial strain of the Shiro-Benacian War, the default on foreign debts, and mismanagement of the empire’s fiscal system, the recession plunged Shireroth into a period of severe economic instability, intensifying the revolutionary fervor of the ongoing Mango Anarchy.
One of the most immediate impacts was a collapse of local markets, especially in urban areas, where war disruptions and halted trade routes devastated businesses. Social programs, already weakened by earlier budget cuts, could no longer support the rapidly growing poor, leading to a further surge in poverty. Discontent spread as shortages of basic goods fueled resentment against the imperial government and noble elites, who were viewed as out of touch with the common people's suffering.
The recession worsened political instability as revolutionary factions seized upon the crisis to challenge the Mango Throne and demand structural reforms. Radical leaders within the Sakuragist and Aldricist factions rallied popular support by promising relief measures, such as land redistribution and the establishment of more representative government institutions. The introduction of assignats (paper currency backed by confiscated noble lands) by more radical members of the government offered temporary economic relief but also devalued traditional currency, intensifying inflation and eroding trust in Shirerithian financial stability.
Suren Confederacy
The Suren Confederacy, recovering from the Bitter Spring revolts and subsequent Surenid civil war, was particularly vulnerable to the economic shocks of 1737 AN. The nation's ambitious plans to revitalize its economy through Alexandrium exploitation were severely disrupted as foreign investment dried up and Zinjibar Alexandrium Company operations were hampered by capital shortages. Export revenues from the Pahlavye Oil Company plummeted as demand from major trading partners like Nouvelle Alexandrie and Oportia contracted sharply.
Industrial output in Surenshahr and Mehrshahr fell by 35% as manufacturing plants suspended operations due to lack of raw materials and falling orders. The Trans-Euran Railway, vital for the Confederacy's trade links, saw freight volume decrease by 40% in the second half of 1737 AN. Unemployment in urban areas reached 8.5%, though this figure likely underestimated the true impact as it excluded rural regions and the substantial kul labor force.
The Bank of Suren struggled to maintain the value of the Surenid tomān as foreign currency reserves dwindled, forcing a 25% devaluation against major trading currencies by early 1738. This sparked severe inflation, officially reported at 22% but estimated to be much higher in reality. The Majles-e Suren passed emergency measures authorizing increased borrowing from the Euran Economic Union, though this further strained the nation's already precarious debt position.
However, swift intervention by Raspur Pact allies helped prevent a deeper crisis. Nouvelle Alexandrie extended a ₢12 billion credit facility through AlduATOM to support the Zinjibar Alexandrium Company's operations, while Natopia provided technical assistance and equipment to modernize key industrial facilities. This aid was carefully structured as "mutual cooperation agreements," allowing the Surenšāh to present them as diplomatic victories rather than emergency bailouts. The Committee of Euran Salvation also played a crucial role by coordinating these support measures while maintaining Surenid autonomy.
These interventions, combined with the gradual recovery of global trade, allowed the Confederacy to stabilize its economy by IV.1738 AN. The Majles-e Suren proudly declared victory over the "temporary market disruption" as industrial production began to recover and inflation moderated. While this narrative glossed over the severe hardships experienced by many Surenids during the crisis, it helped maintain social stability during the critical post-civil war reconstruction period. The recession ultimately strengthened the Confederacy's economic integration with its Raspur Pact allies, though this deeper dependency was carefully obscured in official pronouncements celebrating Suren's "resilience" and "self-sufficiency."
Zeed
The relatively-newly-independent Commonwealth of Zeed suffered significantly, due to the slowing of exports to its primary markets, its Euran neighbors: Oportia, Constancia, Suren, and most importantly, Nouvelle Alexandrie. This credit crunch, trade deficit, and economic contraction suddenly caused a domestic political crisis, as well as a sudden foreign policy push in support of Natopian interests, as well as a diplomatic flurry to gain new markets elsewhere. Local unrest was alleviated by promises for a referendum and elections by 1738 AN, in accordance with Article 61 of the Constitution of the Commonwealth of Zeed.
See also
- Recession of 1737 (Imperial Federation)
- Economy of Nouvelle Alexandrie
- Economy of Oportia
- Economy of Natopia
- Economy of Constancia
- Economy of Zeed
- East Keltian Collapse
- Streïur uis Faïren
