Great Skerry-Valencian Drought (1720-1728)

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Great Skerry-Valencian Drought (1720-1728)

Map highlighting affected area, pre-collapse of Lostisland.
Start date	Late 1719 AN to early 1720 AN
Affected areas	Nouvelle Alexandrie New Luthoria Valencia  Lostisland  Çakaristan
Consequences	Crop failures Recession of 1726 Wildfires Collapse of Lostisland Developing refugee crisis The city of Montediszamble becomes the city of Méry Lostisland split between  Çakaristan and  Nouvelle Alexandrie.

The Great Skerry-Valencian Drought (1720-1728) is an ongoing severe weather event affecting the New Alexandrian Regions of New Luthoria and parts of Valencia, and the Republic of Lostisland. Beginning in late 1719 AN, this prolonged period of dryness and heat that has affected much of the Skerry Isles and parts of Keltia has led to significant agricultural disruptions, economic challenges, and a burgeoning refugee crisis.

Background

The Great Skerry-Valencian Drought began in late 1719 AN, initially striking the New Alexandrian Region of New Luthoria (located in the Skerry Isles) with an exceptionally hot and dry period that raised immediate concerns about food shortages and water scarcity in the island Region. Just a few years earlier, New Luthoria endured the catastrophic 1715–1716 eruption of Mount Broadshaw, which destroyed most of New Luthoria and severely disrupted its local economy and environment.

The drought crisis, starting in the soon expanded to encompass the Republic of Lostisland and southwestern parts of the New Alexandrian Region of Valencia by 1724 AN, significantly affecting water reservoirs and leading to widespread social disorder, particularly in Lostisland. This unprecedented climatic event quickly grew from a regional agricultural concern to a multi-regional humanitarian crisis in the region.

Timeline

Failed farm in New Luthoria due to the drought.

• 20.XV.1721 AN: As the drought entered its ninth month, New Luthorian farmers, overwhelmed by the failing crops, appealed for federal assistance. The federal government of Nouvelle Alexandrie responded by initiating the emergency import food and water supplies for New Luthoria from other parts of the Federation, including from the emergency wells of the National Qullqa System. The regional government of New Luthoria implemented water rationing measures, as well as negotiated agreements with farmers and ranchers on the island for water and irrigation rights.
• Early 1722 AN: The federal government of Nouvelle Alexandrie launched a subsidy program for affected farmers and the Federal Air Force of Nouvelle Alexandrie is instructed to implement a cloud seeding project to induce rainfall. However, these measures provided only temporary relief for New Luthoria.
• 14.XIII.1722 AN: Unexpected torrential rainfalls brought temporary relief to New Luthoria, but it was short-lived as dry conditions swiftly returned a few months later. Water conservation campaigns were initiated, urging citizens to reduce usage. Citizens in New Luthoria are instructed to harvest as much of the rainwater from the rainfall. Regional reservoirs fill up.
• Mid 1723 AN: With the drought persisting, the federal government of Nouvelle Alexandrie increased its investment in desalination plants in New Luthoria, using funding from the Water Security and Conservation Act, 1718. The regional government of New Luthoria begins negotiations with HydroPurify Innovations for the construction of several water desalination and purification plants in New Luthoria. Meanwhile, Lostisland began to experience the first signs of social unrest due to resource shortages, with food prices and regional commerce plummeting as the drought devastates local tourism and commerce, leads to increased food prices regionally.
• 22.XII.1724 AN: The drought's impact intensified in New Luthoria and Valencia, depleting water reservoirs further. In Lostisland, extreme shortages led to heightened social disorder and governmental challenges.
• 23.XII.1724 AN: A dramatic spike in farmer bankruptcies occurred in New Luthoria despite continued federal and regional government subsidies and aid. Cloud seeding operations begin by the Federal Forces of Nouvelle Alexandrie, but their effectiveness remained limited.

1.XV.1726 AN: The division of former Lostisland between Nouvelle Alexandrie and Çakaristan.

• Mid-1725 AN: As the drought continued, The regional government of New Luthoria started implementing advanced irrigation techniques and promoting drought-resistant crops for the island's agricultural economy. However, these measures could not fully mitigate the drought's impact as reservoirs continued to drop under intense heat and lack of rainfall.
• 16.II.1725 AN: New Luthoria faced severe economic repercussions, with agricultural industry suffering massive hits. The federal government's efforts, including financial aid and cloud seeding, had reached their limits.
• Late 1725 AN: Wildfires began to occur more frequently in both New Luthoria and around the Chambéry city metro in Valencia, further straining emergency response resources and exacerbating environmental damage.
• 24.XI.1725 AN: The Republic of Lostisland collapsed into anarchy, leading to a massive refugee crisis. Nouvelle Alexandrie began preparations to respond to the escalating humanitarian situation.
• 26.XI.1726 AN: The Humanitarian Mission in former Lostisland (HMFLL) was launched by Nouvelle Alexandrie and the Çakar Empire to provide aid and stabilize former Lostisland.
• 1.XV.1726 AN: Nouvelle Alexandrie and Çakaristan file a claim with the Micras Cartography Society laying official claim to former Lostisland jointly.

Impacts

The Great Skerry-Valencian Drought brought about significant agricultural, economic, social, and political impacts that rippled through the affected regions. Agriculturally, the prolonged drought led to widespread crop failures and acute water scarcity, severely impacting the agricultural sector. This resulted in substantial food shortages, pushing local economies into a tailspin. In Nouvelle Alexandrie, particularly in New Luthoria and parts of Valencia, the agrarian crisis manifested in a dramatic increase in farmer bankruptcies. The farmers, already strained by the persistent dry conditions, found themselves unable to sustain their livelihoods, leading to a wave of financial distress that exacerbated the broader economic crisis. The situation was further worsened by the onset of wildfires starting from late 1725 AN. These fires ravaged the parched lands, destroying crops and properties, and further compounded the environmental and economic challenges.

The social and political impacts were equally dire. The Republic of Lostisland, already grappling with the severe effects of the drought, descended into chaos. The relentless dry spell depleted essential resources, leading to widespread despair and desperation among the populace. As the government struggled to manage the crisis, social order began to disintegrate, triggering a refugee crisis of unprecedented scale. People, in desperate search of food, water, and safety, began fleeing Lostisland, seeking refuge in neighboring Nouvelle Alexandrie and Çakaristan, further straining the already taxed resources of those nations as they also faced similar conditions. Many of these refugees began arriving in New Luthoria and Valencia themselves.

Amidst this turmoil, reports emerged of various groups and bands claiming allegiance to the Confederacy of the Dispossessed, a foe that Nouvelle Alexandrie had recently defeated during the recent Wars of the Dispossessed. The conflict was costly and induced a sense of war weariness among the populace of Nouvelle Alexandrie. The Confederacy of the Dispossessed was especially adept at capitalizing on the chaos of collapsing nations and the Green, further destabilizing the already precarious situation in Lostisland. Their activities included raids on dwindling supplies, attacking refugee convoys, and attempting to establish control over certain sparsely populated areas of Lostisland. This alarming development prompted urgent consultations in Cardenas, initiating diplomatic efforts among neighboring states and the Micras Treaty Organization.

Recognizing the gravity of the situation and the potential for it to destabilize the entire region, the Nouvelle Alexandrie and the Çakaristan initiated the Humanitarian Mission in former Lostisland (HMFLL). This joint mission, commenced on 26.XI.1726 AN, aimed to provide immediate humanitarian aid, restore order, and prevent the crisis from spiraling into a larger regional conflict. The HMFLL marked a significant cooperative effort to address the multifaceted crisis induced by the prolonged drought and its cascading effects.

Lostisland Refugee Crisis

Urban drought conditions in Lostisland's capital and largest city, the port city of Montediszamble. (1725 AN)

The Republic of Lostisland's descent into chaos, exacerbated by the drought and ongoing social unrest, triggered an unprecedented refugee crisis. As essential resources like food, water, and medical supplies dwindled, a large portion of Lostisland's population began to flee the island nation. This mass exodus, primarily directed towards Nouvelle Alexandrie and Çakaristan, put enormous pressure on these nations' resources and infrastructure. The influx of refugees led to overcrowded camps, strained public services, and heightened tension among local communities.

The initial wave of refugees began arriving in late 1724 AN, with numbers rapidly escalating by mid-1725 AN. The majority were families with young children, elderly, and those requiring medical attention. As the drought's severity grew, so did the number of refugees, reaching an estimated 115,000 by early 1726 AN. These individuals, many suffering from dehydration, malnutrition, and various drought-related ailments, arrived in a state of severe distress.

Amidst this humanitarian crisis, the Federal Intelligence Agency (FIA) and the Maritime Intelligence Agency (MIA) of Nouvelle Alexandrie became deeply involved in Lostisland through the New Alexandrian embassy in the capital of Lostisland, the port city of Montediszamble. They obtained direct reports about the Confederacy of the Dispossessed's efforts to exploit the situation. Intelligence gathered indicated that the Confederacy was actively recruiting from the refugee population, attempting to establish a base of operations within the camps and nearby areas. This alarming intelligence prompted increased security measures around the refugee camps and heightened vigilance from Nouvelle Alexandrie.

One of the most significant turning points in the Lostisland crisis occurred during a national rally in Montediszamble in XIII.1725 AN, amidst a widespread national strike. With almost 100,000 protesters gathered in the historical Central Square of the capital, the rally was originally intended to be a peaceful demonstration against the incumbent government's handling of the drought and the developing cost of living crisis, but it ended up escalating into a major and violent clash with law enforcement and government military forces. This event marked a definitive turning point against the Republic, further destabilizing the already precarious social order and accelerating the refugee crisis. In the eyes of the people, the government had fully lost its legitimacy. On 24.XI.1725 AN, the The Republic of Lostisland collapsed into anarchy as the government fell and many of its former officials fled into exile. Violence broke out in Montediszamble as competing interests began to jostle for power.

As of late 1726 AN, the Lostisland refugee crisis remains a critical concern. Nouvelle Alexandrie and Çakaristan, recognizing the complexity of the situation, launched the Humanitarian Mission in former Lostisland (HMFLL). This mission aims to provide immediate humanitarian aid and address the long-term solutions for the refugees, including potential safe return or integration into host countries and ending sectarian violence.

Recession of 1726

The Recession of 1726 is a significant economic downturn affecting Nouvelle Alexandrie, Constancia, and Oportia. This recession, characterized by a substantial decline in GDP, rising unemployment, decreased consumer spending, and soaring inflation, especially in food prices, has (in great part) roots in the Great Skerry-Valencian Drought. While the drought raged in the Skerry Isles and the Captive Sea in Keltia, Alduria's most fertile areas started facing similar drought conditions that also blanketed the rest of the Euran continent, affecting Constancia and Oportia in Eura. The mounting crop failures in Alduria, New Luthoria, and southwestern Valencia led to a spike in food prices, which has driven high inflation across Nouvelle Alexandrie, Constancia, and Oportia. This drought in eura helped fuel the 1721 Oportian protests and the 1725 Constancian crisis, both situations that further fueled the start of a recession in 1726 AN.

Compounding these environmental challenges, the collapse of Banco Nacional Aguilar and Euran Trust & Commerce Bank in Constancia in 1725 AN, major players in agricultural financing in both Constancia and Nouvelle Alexandrie, triggered a financial crisis. These banks' failures not only disrupted the agricultural sector but also led to a loss of confidence in the banking sector, further exacerbating the economic downturn.

Droughts in the Beneluccas, Sanpantul and Sri Pashana

Droughts in the Beneluccas, Sanpantul and Sri Pashana are having a major impact on harvests. In Sanpantul, the rice harvest failed. Rice is an important part of the Sanpo's diet. Large quantities of rice are brought in from Apollonian Çakaristan to meet the shortfall. The Emperor of Sanpantul set up a fund to support farmers. The state's poor financial condition makes this initiative difficult. The Çakari Congress was divided on the level of assistance.

On the Beneluccas, the harvest of sugarcane was disappointing. Prices of rum rose immediately. Shortages of water also developed. Construction of the desalination plant at Ruhatyn was not yet completed. And the water pipeline between Erasmus Island and Minat Island had not yet been repaired after it was bombed during the Sanpo-Çakar War. The Apollonian Security Assistance Force was deployed by the government in Agra to provide water. The drought and water shortages also seemed to have an effect on tourism, on which the Beneluccas are very dependent. The rebounding tourism after the Sanpo-Çakar War is a major cause of the islands' economic recovery.

Harvests of coconuts, rice, spices and tea were disappointing at Sri Pashana. Less dramatic as on Sanpantul, because of the irrigation network and reservoirs. Still, production was lower than previous years, which actually saw post-war production growth. The state Department of Agriculture instituted water rationing. This halted construction of the Deshpanday Dam, a hydroelectric gravity dam, because the concrete requires a lot of water.

See also

• Humanitarian Mission in former Lostisland
• NBC Newsfeed
• Recession of 1726
• 1725 Constancian crisis