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I

5

IOP/NBC News Public Opinion Polling

National Party Voting Intention

NATIONAL PARTY VOTING INTENTION
If the election were held today, which party would you support?
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 12.I.1751 AN

Party	Percentage in Poll	Change Since Last Poll
Federal Humanist Party (FHP)	38.4%	▼ -1.8%
Civic Governance Alliance (CGA)	23.2%	▲ +2.7%
Alliance for a Just Nouvelle Alexandrie (AJNA)	21.0%	▲ +2.5%
Federal Consensus Party (FCP)	4.1%	▼ -4.4%
Independents & Other Candidates	13.3%	▲ +1.0%

Party Leader Favorability Ratings

PARTY LEADER FAVORABILITY RATINGS
% of registered voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 12.I.1751 AN

Leader	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion	Net Favorability	Change
José Manuel Montero (FHP) Premier	40.5%	47.0%	12.5%	▼ -6.5%	▼ -3.0%
Elena Svensson (CGA) CGA Coordinator	67.5%	15.0%	17.5%	▲ +52.5%	▲ +3.5%
Mayani Guacanagari (AJNA) Interim Leader	41.0%	38.0%	21.0%	▲ +3.0%	▲ +5.0%
Claude Beaumont (FCP) Leader	22.5%	58.0%	19.5%	▼ -35.5%	▼ -27.5%

Government Approval

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Montero government is doing?
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 12.I.1751 AN

Response	Percentage	Change Since X.1750
Approve	41.0%	▼ -2.5%
Disapprove	46.5%	▲ +3.0%
No Opinion	12.5%	▼ -0.5%
Net Approval	▼ -5.5%	▼ -5.5%

Direction of the Federation

DIRECTION OF THE FEDERATION
Do you think the Federation is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 12.I.1751 AN

Response	Percentage	Change Since X.1750
Right Direction	38.5%
Wrong Direction	48.0%	▲ +1.5%
No Opinion	13.5%	▼ -1.5%

27

DSP ANNOUNCES LEADERSHIP ELECTION AS MARTINEZ DECLARES CANDIDACY

Deputy Sofia Martinez announces her candidacy for DSP leader at a press conference in Santander; 27.I.1751 AN.

• DSP National Executive Sets Convention for 15.IV in Parap to Elect New Leader
• Deputy Sofia Martinez First to Declare, Calls for "Clean Break" From Scandal Era
• Candidates Must Secure Nominations From 48 of 236 Deputies to Qualify for Regional Primaries
• Party Faces Existential Questions With Leader in Exile, Deputy Leader in Prison
• Martina Vásquez Loyalists Signal Intent to Field Candidate Defending Her Legacy
• CGA Continues Recruiting Moderate DSP Members as Leadership Vacuum Persists

Cárdenas, FCD -- The Democratic Socialist Party of Nouvelle Alexandrie announced a leadership election yesterday to fill the vacancy left by Martina Vásquez's flight to Aerla one year ago. Deputy Sofia Martinez of Santander became the first candidate to declare, calling for a "clean break" from the scandal that destroyed the party's credibility.

The DSP National Executive Committee set the National Convention for 15.IV.1751 AN in Parap, where delegates will select a new leader through the party's regional primary system. Acting Party Chair Isabella Moreno, who has led the party administratively since Vásquez's departure, announced the timeline at a press conference in Cárdenas.

"For one year, this party has been without permanent leadership," Moreno said. "Our 236 Deputies deserve a leader they elected. Our members deserve a voice. The progressive movement deserves clarity about who speaks for it."

The announcement comes as the DSP faces its most serious crisis since the party's founding. Vásquez remains in Aerlan exile, named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Pact of Shadows scandal. Former Deputy Leader Carlos Mendoza is serving a 14-year prison sentence for his role in the conspiracy. The party's polling has declined from a post-election high of 24.8% to approximately 19%, with the Civic Governance Alliance actively recruiting disaffected members.

Martinez, 47, announced her candidacy hours after the National Executive's decision. The former teacher and education policy expert held a press conference in her home city of Santander, where she directly addressed the party's need to move beyond the Vásquez era.

"I will not pretend that what happened didn't happen," Martinez said. "Our former leader fled rather than face justice. Our former deputy leader was convicted of conspiracy to defraud the Federation. These are facts. They are painful facts. But denial will not rebuild this party."

Martinez was the first DSP Deputy to publicly criticize Vásquez's flight, telling reporters in I.1750 AN that "running makes her look guilty and destroys whatever credibility our party had left." That statement earned her the enmity of Vásquez loyalists but positioned her as the voice of the party's pragmatic wing.

Her platform emphasizes what she calls "accountable progressivism." She proposes refocusing the party on education, healthcare, and working-class economic concerns while acknowledging the security and governance failures that led to the 1749 election results.

"We won 236 seats because New Alexandrians wanted change," Martinez said. "They trusted us. Then they watched our leaders plan to steal billions while calling them sheep. We have to earn that trust back, and we cannot do it by pretending the betrayal never occurred."

The leadership contest will follow the party's revised primary system, adopted in 1734 AN and expanded for the 1745 election. Candidates must secure nominations from at least 20% of sitting DSP Deputies, which translates to 48 of the current 236. Regional primaries will award delegates proportionally, with candidates needing 15% support in each region to receive delegates.

The primary calendar begins with Alduria on 25.II.1751 AN and concludes with the Federal Capital District on 11.IV.1751 AN. Three nationally televised debates will be held during the campaign. The final selection at the Parap convention will use a weighted system: 60% for regional primary delegates, 20% for sitting DSP Deputies, and 20% for affiliated trade union representatives.

Party sources expect at least three additional candidates to enter the race before the nomination deadline on 15.II.1751 AN. Deputy Leila Bensouda of Alduria, who finished third in the 1744-45 contest, is widely expected to run on a civil liberties platform. Deputy Tomas Quispe of the Wechua Nation, the youngest of the likely candidates at 39, has been meeting with environmental and indigenous rights groups.

The most contentious question is whether Vásquez loyalists will field a candidate. Sources within the party's Valencia chapter confirmed that supporters who believe Vásquez was politically persecuted are organizing to contest the election. Deputy Ricardo Ortega of Valencia has emerged as a potential standard-bearer for this faction.

"There are people in this party who think Martina was railroaded," said one DSP Deputy who requested anonymity. "They're not going to let Sofia Martinez waltz into the leadership pretending she didn't stab her in the back."

Martinez dismissed the characterization. "I didn't stab anyone. I told the truth when others were silent. If that's disqualifying, then this party has bigger problems than I can solve."

Former Deputy Leader Carlos Dominguez, who finished second in the 1745 election with 43.1% of convention delegates, is being closely watched. He has not indicated whether he will seek the leadership again. His endorsement could prove decisive given his strong support among trade unions and in the Wechua Nation.

The leadership vacuum has created opportunities for the Civic Governance Alliance, which has actively courted moderate DSP members since its founding in I.1750 AN. CGA Coordinator Elena Svensson has made public overtures to "reform-minded progressives" frustrated with the DSP's direction. At least three DSP Deputies have held private meetings with CGA officials, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

"Every day we go without real leadership, we lose people," said one DSP strategist. "The CGA offers clean governance without the baggage. If we elect someone who wants to relitigate the Vásquez prosecution, we'll lose a dozen Deputies by summer."

The Alliance for a Just Nouvelle Alexandrie coalition adds another layer of complexity. Mayani Guacanagari of the Wakara People's Party has served as AJNA's interim coalition leader since I.1750 AN, but the DSP's 236 seats dwarf the WPP's 20 and United for Alvelo's 3. A new DSP leader may seek to claim coalition leadership, potentially creating friction with Guacanagari.

WPP sources indicated their party would remain neutral in the DSP contest but expressed concern about a loyalist victory. "If the DSP elects someone who thinks Vásquez did nothing wrong, that's a problem for the whole coalition," one WPP official said.

Financial markets showed no significant reaction to the announcement. Political analysts suggested the leadership election's outcome matters less to investors than the FHP-CGA coalition's stability.

"The DSP is the largest opposition party, but they're not close to governing," said Santiago Morales of Best Practices, Inc.. "What matters for markets is whether Montero's coalition holds. The DSP leadership race is about who leads the opposition, not who leads the country."

Martinez concluded her announcement with an appeal to party unity, though her message contained an implicit challenge to potential loyalist candidates.

"I'm not asking anyone to forget their beliefs or abandon their friends," she said. "I'm asking them to choose between the past and the future. Martina Vásquez is not coming back. Carlos Mendoza is not coming back. The question is whether the Democratic Socialist Party comes back, or whether we let it die defending people who betrayed everything we stood for."

The nomination period runs through 15.II.1751 AN. The first regional primary is scheduled for 25.II.1751 AN in Alduria.

---

▸ OOC: Story Summary & Impact Assessment

TL;DR: DSP finally announces leadership election after one year without permanent leadership following Vásquez's flight. Sofia Martinez declares first, calling for clean break from scandal. Convention set for 15.IV.1751 in Parap. Expected candidates include Bensouda (civil liberties), Quispe (environment/youth), and potentially Ortega (Vásquez loyalist). Dominguez declines to run but becomes kingmaker. Party polling down from 24.8% to 19% while CGA rises to 21%.

Impact: Political Stability: ▲ +1|Gov't Approval: ▼ -1|Social Cohesion: ▼ -1

II

1

VÁSQUEZ ACCEPTS PERMANENT HOUSE ARREST IN AERLA UNDER DIPLOMATIC AGREEMENT

(Left) Martina Vásquez, leader of AJNA & the DSP; (Right) the flag of Aerla.

• Martina Vásquez Agrees to Indefinite Monitored Custody, Cannot Leave Aerla or Engage in Political Activity
• Nouvelle Alexandrie Withdraws Extradition Request, Will Not Pursue Trial In Absentia'
• Aerla Maintains Policy of Not Extraditing for Post-Arrival Warrants While Ensuring "Meaningful Accountability"
• Agreement Includes Cooperation on Pact of Shadows Investigation Through Aerlan Intermediaries
• Vásquez Statement: "I Accept These Terms to Protect My Children From Further Persecution"
• ACA Ombudsman: "Justice Takes Many Forms. She Will Never Hold Power Again."

Cárdenas, FCD -- Martina Vásquez will spend the rest of her life under house arrest in Aerla under a diplomatic agreement announced yesterday by both governments. The former Alliance for a Just Nouvelle Alexandrie leader accepted permanent restrictions on her movement and political activity in exchange for Nouvelle Alexandrie dropping its extradition request.

The agreement, formally titled the "Noursala Arrangement" after the Aerlan capital where Vásquez has resided since fleeing Nouvelle Alexandrie in I.1750 AN, represents a compromise that both governments characterized as serving justice while respecting legal and humanitarian constraints.

Secretary of State Victoria Montalbán and Aerlan Minister of Foreign Affairs Lucas Kessler signed the joint communiqué yesterday morning following three months of negotiations conducted largely in secret.

"This arrangement ensures meaningful accountability while respecting Aerla's sovereign legal framework," Montalbán said at a press conference in Cárdenas. "Martina Vásquez will never return to Nouvelle Alexandrie. She will never hold public office. She will never again betray the trust of the people she claimed to represent."

Under the terms of the agreement, Vásquez must remain within a designated residence in Noursala under electronic monitoring. She is prohibited from leaving Aerlan territory, engaging in political activities, making public statements about New Alexandrian politics, or communicating with current DSP officials without prior approval from both governments. Violations will result in immediate transfer to Aerlan custody pending review of the arrangement's terms.

In exchange, Nouvelle Alexandrie formally withdrew its extradition request and agreed not to pursue charges against Vásquez in absentia. The Federation also agreed to cease efforts to freeze assets held by Vásquez's husband Miguel Torres in Aerla, though assets within Nouvelle Alexandrie remain subject to civil forfeiture proceedings.

The agreement resolves a diplomatic impasse that began when Aerla's Committee of International Extraditions refused to extradite Vásquez in II.1750 AN. That decision cited two factors: the arrest warrant was issued after Vásquez's arrival in Aerlan territory, and significant safety concerns existed for the couple's three children.

Minister Kessler emphasized that Aerla had not abandoned its principles. "Our policy remains unchanged. We do not extradite individuals for warrants issued after their arrival. What we have done is work with our New Alexandrian partners to find a solution that serves justice without violating our legal framework."

The arrangement includes a provision that proved crucial to breaking the deadlock: Vásquez agreed to cooperate with ongoing investigations into the Pact of Shadows scandal through Aerlan intermediaries. She will provide written responses to questions submitted by the Anti-Corruption Agency of Nouvelle Alexandrie, with Aerlan officials serving as intermediaries to ensure compliance with local law.

ACA Ombudsman Carlos Eduardo Mendoza acknowledged the arrangement fell short of prosecution but defended the outcome.

"We wanted her in a courtroom. We wanted her to face a jury. That was not possible given Aerla's legal constraints," Mendoza said. "What we have instead is permanent exile, permanent monitoring, and cooperation that may help us understand the full scope of the conspiracy. Justice takes many forms. The most important thing is that Martina Vásquez will never hold power again."

Vásquez released a brief statement through Aerlan authorities, her first public communication since her flight.

"I maintain my innocence and believe the charges against me were politically motivated," the statement read. "However, I accept these terms to protect my children from further persecution and harassment. I will not allow my family to suffer for the political ambitions of my enemies. I ask that my former colleagues in the DSP continue fighting for working families and progressive values."

The reference to her DSP colleagues drew immediate criticism given the agreement's prohibition on political statements.

"She's already violating the terms," said Deputy Sofia Martinez, who announced her candidacy for DSP leader days earlier. "She can't help herself. Even in exile, even under house arrest, she's trying to influence the party she betrayed."

Legal experts suggested the statement likely fell within acceptable bounds as a one-time response to the agreement's announcement but warned that further political commentary could trigger enforcement provisions.

The agreement's terms regarding Vásquez's three children proved essential to securing her consent. All three remain minors, and Aerla's original refusal cited their safety as a primary concern. Under the arrangement, the children will continue living with their parents in Noursala and attending local schools. Nouvelle Alexandrie agreed not to pursue any legal action that would result in family separation.

Torres, Vásquez's husband, is not charged with any crimes in Nouvelle Alexandrie and retains freedom of movement within Aerla. However, he cannot return to Nouvelle Alexandrie without risking detention as a material witness in ongoing proceedings.

The investigation into who helped Vásquez flee continues. Tomás Urdaneta, a junior ACA officer, was arrested in XI.1750 AN for accepting an NAX€85,000 bribe to warn Vásquez about impending arrest warrants. The investigation has traced payments to intermediaries with Tiegang connections, though no additional arrests have been announced.

Mendoza confirmed the arrangement includes provisions for Vásquez to answer questions about the leak. "She may know things about how she was warned. That information could be valuable. The arrangement creates a framework for obtaining it."

Opposition reactions split along predictable lines. Federal Consensus Party interim leader Claude Beaumont called the agreement "the best outcome available under difficult circumstances." AJNA interim coalition leader Mayani Guacanagari offered cautious support, noting that "accountability has been achieved even if prosecution proved impossible."

Vásquez loyalists within the DSP denounced the arrangement as capitulation to a political witch hunt.

"They couldn't prove their case in court, so they negotiated a plea deal without a trial," said Deputy Ricardo Ortega of Valencia, who is reportedly considering a DSP leadership bid. "Martina agreed to this to protect her children, not because she's guilty. The real criminals are the ones who manufactured this scandal to destroy the progressive movement."

The Federal Humanist Party government offered measured praise. Government spokesperson Marian Mehdi-Coulier called the arrangement "a reasonable resolution that ensures the individual responsible for planning massive corruption cannot return to public life."

Premier José Manuel Montero did not comment publicly. Sources within the Council of State indicated the government viewed the arrangement as closing a difficult chapter while avoiding a prolonged diplomatic conflict with Aerla.

Many legal experts offered mixed assessments. "This is creative diplomacy solving a problem that had no clean solution," said Dr. Ramon Castillo of the Royal University of Parap. "Aerla maintained its legal principles. Nouvelle Alexandrie obtained meaningful restrictions. Vásquez avoided prison but lost everything else. Nobody got exactly what they wanted, which usually means the compromise worked."

The arrangement takes effect immediately. Vásquez and her family have already relocated to the designated residence in Noursala, where monitoring systems have been installed. Aerlan authorities will provide quarterly compliance reports to the New Alexandrian embassy.

Judge Alejandra Fuentes, who sentenced the nine convicted Pact of Shadows defendants in X.1750 AN, had noted during those proceedings that "one ringleader escaped accountability" and that "justice is incomplete."

Asked whether the arrangement changed that assessment, Fuentes declined to comment on a diplomatic matter outside her jurisdiction. However, she noted that "the law recognizes many forms of accountability beyond imprisonment."

For Vásquez, the agreement means permanent exile from the country she once sought to lead. She cannot return to Nouvelle Alexandrie, cannot participate in politics, cannot speak publicly about the party she helped build. Her political career, which began in 1729 AN when she was first elected to the Federal Assembly from South Lyrica, is over.

"She escaped prison," Montalbán said. "She did not escape consequences."

---

▸ OOC: Story Summary & Impact Assessment

TL;DR: NAX and Aerla announce the "Noursala Arrangement" resolving Vásquez's status. She accepts permanent house arrest, electronic monitoring, prohibition on political activity/statements, and cannot leave Aerla or contact DSP officials. In exchange, NAX withdraws extradition request and won't pursue trial in absentia. She must cooperate with ongoing Pact of Shadows investigation through Aerlan intermediaries. Vásquez's statement urging DSP colleagues to "continue fighting" immediately draws criticism as potential violation. Sets up conflict for DSP leadership race between Martinez (clean break) and Ortega (loyalist defender).

Impact: Political Stability: ▲ +1|Gov't Approval: ▲ +1|International Relations: ▲ +2|Civil Liberties: ▲ +1

XIV

20

IMPERIAL SYNKLETOS ORDERED DISSOLVED BY END OF 1751

Crest of the Imperial State of Constancia

• The Imperial Synkletos is a hybrid elected and appointed consultative assembly that constitutionally serves as the primary voice of the Constancian People
• This is the 20th Imperial Synkletos and was convened 14.1.1746
• Speaker Seraphina Valeriana has retained confidence throughout the session
• Magna Carta of 1667 specifies Imperial Synkletos sits "for seven years, and no longer"
• Elected representatives to the Imperial Synkletos are called Dikastis (Dikastes in plural)
• Representatives are elected on a party basis, not as individuals

Petropolis, Constancia -- An Imperial Decree has been issued, ordering the Imperial Synkletos of the Imperial State of Constancia to dissolve by 13.XV.1751. This is in accordance with the Magna Carta of 1667, the Constancian fundamental law, which states that, "A Synkletos that shall at any time hereafter be called, assembled, or held, shall and may respectively have continuance for seven years, and no longer, to be accounted from the day on which by the writ of summons the Synkletos shall be, appointed to meet, unless this present or any such Synkletos hereafter to be summoned shall be sooner dissolved by the Basileus, his heirs or successors.

"When the Synkletos has been ordered to conclude or dissolve, elected members shall be caused by Decree to be newly elected, and the new Synkletos shall be convoked within two years from the day of dissolution.

"There shall be a Permanent Standing Committee composed of no more than 25 members who shall represent the interests of the Synkletos when the Synkletos is not sitting."

These provisions are in the First Amendment. What this means, is that the Imperial Synkletos conducts business until the day when it is ordered dissolved, traditionally on or around 13.XV of the year. This is followed by campaign and election season, and the new Imperial Synkletos convenes on 14.I of the succeeding year.

See also

• NBC Newsfeed
• Pact of Shadows scandal
• Administration of Premier José Manuel Montero
• DSP leadership contest, 1751
• Operation Faun
• New Alexandrian university protests of 1750
• Civic Governance Alliance