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XI

1

SHOCK IOP/NBC POLLING REPORT: A TIGHT RACE DEVELOPS AS HUMANIST AND FEDERAL CONSENSUS FACE CHALLENGERS, DIVIDED ELECTORATE

Federal Assembly Expands to 689 Seats, Setting 345 Seats as Majority Benchmark

New Data: Federal Humanist Party Leading with 45.9% and Poised for 311 Seats

Federal Consensus Trailing Close at 43.7% and Projected 293 Seats; Democratic Socialists at 8.0% and 54 Seats

Emerging Players: United for Alvelo and Wakara People's Party Collectively Take 1.8% and 15 Seats Nationally

Remaining Seats Occupied by Independents and People's Liberty Congress with 3.5% and 0.6% Respectively, Resulting in 19 and 0 Seats

Campaign Strategies Pivot as 1723 General Elections Approach

CÁRDENAS, FCD -- The most recent data from the Institute of Public Opinion (IOP) and NBC reveal a volatile and increasingly complex race for the Federal Assembly in the impending 1723 general elections. The enlarged Federal Assembly, now comprising 689 seats, has adjusted the magic number for a majority to 345, thereby elevating every vote's importance.

Political scientist Dr. Elaine Harlow observed, "Emerging political movements are not only eroding the base of traditional parties but are also altering the very fabric of political discourse in Nouvelle Alexandrie."

The Federal Humanist Party (FHP), polling at 43.7% (projected: 293 seats), appears to have arrested its declining political fortunes, bolstered by a resurgent economy and low unemployment rates. The poll and seat projections imply that the party would not just lose its majority, it would lose 61 seats (currently at 354, having won 53.4% The party's polling stabilization comes in the wake of recent political missteps by the Federal Consensus Party (FCP) in the Federal Assembly. Notably, the FCP failed to introduce its own motion of no confidence against FHP's Secretary of Defense Felipe de Almagro and missed key votes, particularly on policies they had initially championed. These gaffes coincided with inconsistent and poorly articulated statements on key foreign policy issues such as the Wars of the Dispossessed. This upturn in the FHP's prospects offers some respite from the headwinds of the Emergency Shipbuilding Program procurement scandal, divisive counter protests against the Nouveau Wave, and rising public war-weariness.

The Federal Consensus Party (FCP), polling at has leveraged its role as the primary alternative to the Federal Humanist Party. Despite scoring points against the FHP with the Emergency Shipbuilding Program procurement scandal and counter protests against the Nouveau Wave, it has faltered in the public eye for not backing many of the military operations responding to the 1718 Condor shoot-down incident and the Wars of the Dispossessed. The incident, which resulted in the death of King Manco Capac I and Basileus Giakoumis of Constancia, led to military retaliations that a segment of the electorate now increasingly questions. Party leader Alfons Dandela is its most recognizable face and is generally perceived by voters in the poll as an "advocate for the people".

However, the spotlight falls on two transformative movements causing ripples in Nouvelle Alexandrie's political waters. As political analyst Marcus Thornton noted, "Both movements are regional but exhibit the potential to shape national politics. United for Alvelo exemplifies the magnetic power of a compelling leader, while the Wakara People's Party showcases the electoral force of targeted, localized agendas."

In the Region of Santander, populist center-left candidate Pablo Alvelo Nieves, leading the United for Alvelo (UfA) movement, has gripped regional attention with his charismatic public speaking, grassroots outreach, and sweeping promises. His meticulously constructed platform addresses both national and regional concerns, proposing a "Unified Social Credit Policy" alongside regional infrastructure projects and a modern "civic service requirement."

In contrast, Boriquén hosts the meteoric rise of the Wakara People's Party (WPP). Pioneered by Mayani Guacanagari and Beatriz Daguao, the duo gained Assembly seats as independents in 1718. They invigorated grassroots activism through annual "Voces de Boriquén" campaigns when the Assembly was adjourned. Their innovative, indigenous-centric political ideology calls for significant infrastructural investments under the "Plan for Boriquén." This agenda has captured 28.8% of the Boriquén electorate, translating into ten Federal Assembly seats, and is chipping away at the voting base of traditional parties like the Federal Humanist Party and the Federal Consensus Party.

The People's Liberty Congress (PLC), under the leadership of George Alvin Winters, has suffered a spectacular fall from grace. Party finance scandals and failed marketing campaigns, along with a series of unconvincing policy propositions, have quickly discredited the party. The latest polling indicates that it is unlikely to win any seats in the upcoming Federal Assembly. The demise of the PLC effectively removes the only party in the Federal Assembly advocating for Nouvelle Alexandrie's withdrawal from the Raspur Pact.

The Democratic Socialist Party (DSP), helmed by Silvio Ruiz, remains a conglomerate of various leftist ideologies, from social democrats to pragmatic communists. Despite suffering from a lack of activity and visibility, the party remains a consistent player in the Federal Assembly. The DSP has served as a de facto opposition during the 6th Cortes Federales on several occasions when the FCP failed to show up for key votes. The party's stable "core left" base keeps it relevant, though not necessarily expansive currently, in the political arena.

Independents continue to find a niche in the upcoming Federal Assembly, offering regional alternatives for voters dissatisfied with traditional party politics. While they do not form a cohesive ideological block, independents are set to occupy a small but potentially decisive number of seats, according to the poll. Respected commentator Lillian Chambers stated, "Smaller parties and independents could become kingmakers in a divided Assembly. The willingness of the electorate to explore alternatives underscores a restless political landscape."

The updated polling data injects more questions than clarity into the upcoming elections. All parties must grapple with shifting sands as they adapt strategies for the dramatic final chapters of this election season. Based on the current IOP/National Broadcasting Corporation Poll, the seat distribution shapes up as follows:

National Voting Intention & Seat Projections

National Party Voting Intention
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±3%

Party	Percentage in Poll	Change from Last Poll	Projected Seats	Gain/Loss in Seats (from 1718)
Federal Humanist Party (FHP)	45.9%	▲ +1.3%	311 seats	▼ -43 seats
Federal Consensus Party (FCP)	43.7%	▼ -2.0%	293 seats	▲ +25 seats
Democratic Socialist Party (DSP)	8.0%	▲ +1.0%	54 seats	▲ +23 seats
People's Liberty Congress (PLC)	0.6%	▼ -0.4%	0 seats	▼ -2 seats
United for Alvelo	0.6%	▲ +0.6%	5 seats	▲ +5 seats
Wakara People's Party	1.2%	▲ +1.2%	10 seats	▲ +10 seats
Independents & Unaligned Candidates	3.5%	▲ +2.1%	19 seats	▲ +13 seats

Key Takeaways:

• After holding power with large majorities since 1708 AN, the Federal Humanist Party (FHP) is poised for a historical setback as it is projected to lose its majority for the first time, despite a slight increase in recent polls.
• The Federal Consensus Party (FCP) sees a downturn in voter support in the poll, but is anticipated to gain 25 more seats, solidifying its role as the official, reliable, and sustainable Opposition in the eyes of voters.
• The Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) remains stable in the polls, though it still lags considerably behind the two front-running parties.
• The People's Liberty Congress (PLC) is expected to win zero seats, underscoring its declining influence since the 1718 elections.
• Smaller parties and independent candidates are increasingly influencing the political landscape, as seen in their gains in voter support and projected seats.
  • The United for Alvelo movement, despite having limited support at 0.6%, has surprisingly secured 5 seats, demonstrating its concentrated regional strength.
  • The Wakara People's Party is making inroads with 1.2% support and a projected 10 seats, pointing to a growing but still marginal influence in the Assembly.

Regional Voting Intention & Seat Projections

Alduria

Regional Party Voting Intention in Alduria
% of registered New Alexandrian voters in Alduria
Margin of error: ±3%

Party	Percentage in Poll	Seats in Alduria	Gain/Loss in Seats (from 1718)
Federal Humanist Party (FHP)	40.3%	60 seats	▼ -12 seats
Federal Consensus Party (FCP)	48.2%	71 seats	▲ +2 seats
Democratic Socialist Party (DSP)	9.1%	13 seats	▲ +9 seats
People's Liberty Congress (PLC)	0.2%	0 seats	▼ 0 seats
Independents & Unaligned Candidates	2.2%	3 seats	▲ +3 seats

Key Takeaways for Alduria:

• The FHP faces a considerable setback in Alduria, projected to lose 12 seats compared to 1718 in a region traditionally dominated by the party.
• The FCP counters the national trend, would gain 2 seats and emerging as the leading party in Alduria.
• The DSP makes significant strides, increases its seat count to 13 from just 4 in the previous election.
• Independent candidates carve a small but significant niche, securing 3 seats.
• FHP: The loss of a majority in Alduria suggests that a reevaluation of the party's strategy in this key region may be necessary.
• FCP: The gains in Alduria present an opportunity for the party to strengthen its presence in a traditionally FHP-dominated landscape.
• DSP: While still not a major contender, the significant gain in seats could mark a turning point for the party in Alduria.
• Independents: The ability to secure 3 seats indicates that voters may be open to alternatives beyond the major parties.
• Alduria, with the largest delegation to the Federal Assembly and comprising 21.21% of Nouvelle Alexandrie's population, remains a crucial battleground that could influence the overall Assembly composition.

Wechua Nation

Wechua Nation Party Voting Intention
% of registered voters
Margin of error: ±3%

Party	Percentage in Poll	Seats in the Wechua Nation	Gain/Loss in Seats (from 1718)
Federal Humanist Party (FHP)	44.7%	62 seats	▼ -10 seats
Federal Consensus Party (FCP)	44.4%	61 seats	▲ +7 seats
Democratic Socialist Party (DSP)	5.6%	8 seats	▼ -1 seats
People's Liberty Congress (PLC)	0.2%	0 seats	0 seats
Independents & Unaligned Candidates	4.4%	6 seats	▲ +3 seats

Key Takeaways for Wechua Nation:

• The FHP has lost ground since 1718, would likely lose 10 seats, marking a shift in a region that was becoming a stronghold for the party.
• The FCP is the primary beneficiary, gaining 7 seats, and virtually tying with the FHP in terms of voter intention.
• DSP has lost its previous ground, down to just 8 seats from 9 in 1718.
• Independent candidates are also gaining modest traction, moving up from 3 to 6 seats.
• FHP: The declining influence suggests a need for renewed focus in Wechua Nation, especially as it historically trended strongly towards FHP.
• FCP: The gains indicate a surge in popularity, suggesting a potentially successful battleground for the party.
• DSP: The decline in seats could mark a critical point for DSP to reassess its strategy in the region.
• Independents: Increased representation of independents suggests voter disillusionment with mainstream parties and is in keeping with Wechua political tradition.
• The Wechua Nation has the 2nd largest delegation to the Assembly with 137 seats and comprises 19.77% of Nouvelle Alexandrie's population. This region could be decisive in tipping the balance for parties in the Assembly.