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IOP/NBC News Public Opinion Polling

National Party Voting Intention

NATIONAL PARTY VOTING INTENTION
If the election were held today, which party would you support?
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 15-22.I.1753 AN

Party	Percentage in Poll	Change Since VIII.1752
Federal Humanist Party (FHP)	46.5%	▲ +1.5%
Alliance for a Just Nouvelle Alexandrie (AJNA)	23.0%	▲ +0.5%
Civic Governance Alliance (CGA)	17.0%	▼ -1.0%
Federal Consensus Party (FCP)	6.0%	▲ +0.5%
Independents & Other Candidates	7.5%	▼ -1.5%

Party Leader Favorability Ratings

PARTY LEADER FAVORABILITY RATINGS
% of registered voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 15-22.I.1753 AN

Leader	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion	Net Favorability	Change
Jose Manuel Montero (FHP) Premier	50.0%	40.0%	10.0%	▲ +10.0%	▲ +2.0%
Elena Svensson (CGA) CGA Coordinator	50.0%	27.0%	23.0%	▲ +23.0%	▼ -3.0%
Leila Bensouda (AJNA) Leader of the Opposition	54.0%	24.0%	22.0%	▲ +30.0%	▼ -2.0%
Francisco Gabaza (FCP) Leader	32.0%	24.0%	44.0%	▲ +8.0%	▲ +6.0%

Government Approval

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Montero government is doing?
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 15-22.I.1753 AN

Response	Percentage	Change Since VIII.1752
Approve	51.0%	▲ +1.0%
Disapprove	38.0%	▼ -1.0%
No Opinion	11.0%	0.0%
Net Approval	▲ +13.0%	▲ +2.0%

Direction of the Federation

DIRECTION OF THE FEDERATION
Do you think the Federation is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 15-22.I.1753 AN

Response	Percentage	Change Since VIII.1752
Right Direction	49.0%	▲ +1.0%
Wrong Direction	38.0%	▼ -1.0%
No Opinion	13.0%	0.0%

Empress Clara I Approval

EMPRESS CLARA I APPROVAL
Do you approve or disapprove of Queen Adelaide's decision to accept the Natopian throne as Empress Clara I?
% of registered New Alexandrian voters
Margin of error: ±2.3%
Survey conducted 15-22.I.1753 AN

Response	Percentage
Approve	71.0%
Disapprove	12.0%
No Opinion	17.0%

Note: Queen Adelaide acceded to the Natopian throne as Empress Clara I in XII.1752 AN following the death of her mother, Empress Vadoma I. Under the Treaty of Dynastic Separation, the crowns of Nouvelle Alexandrie and Natopia remain constitutionally separate.

MONTERO GOVERNMENT ENTERS 1753 STRONG AS SHIREROTH EXIT AND OPERATION FAUN SETTLEMENT RESHAPE POLITICS

• IOP/NBC News Poll Finds FHP at 46.5%, Up 1.5 Points; Governing Coalition Commands 63.5% Combined Support
• Shireroth Formally Withdraws From Raspur Pact on 1.I.1753 AN; Officials Express "Profound Disappointment" at Loss of Historic Ally
• Operation Faun Lawsuit Settled; Sofia Reyes Receives Undisclosed Sum as Government Admits No Wrongdoing
• Housing Construction at Record Levels But Urban Affordability Worsens; FBNA Flags Property-Backed Securities Exposure
• FCP Continues Recovery Under Gabaza as "No Opinion" Voters Begin Forming Views
• CGA Slides to 17.0% as Junior Coalition Partner Struggles to Distinguish Itself From FHP

Cardenas, FCD -- The first comprehensive poll of 1753 AN finds the Montero government in its strongest position since taking office, with the Federal Humanist Party reaching 46.5% support and the governing coalition commanding a combined 63.5% of voter intention. The survey comes as the Federation navigates a shifting international landscape and closes the book on one of the most contentious domestic controversies of recent years.

The IOP/NBC News survey, conducted between 15-22.I.1753 AN with 4,200 registered voters across all twelve regions, shows the FHP gaining 1.5 points since the last comparable poll in VIII.1752 AN. The Alliance for a Just Nouvelle Alexandrie edged up half a point to 23.0%, while the Civic Governance Alliance continued its slow decline, falling a full point to 17.0%.

*"The governing coalition enters the election cycle from a position of strength," said Dr. Marguerite Delacroix, Director of Political Studies at the Institut d'Opinion Publique. *"But the interesting story is the shifting composition. The FHP is consolidating support that used to go to the CGA. That's good for the coalition's raw numbers but suggests the junior partner is losing its distinctive identity."

The new year opened with a development that cast a long shadow over diplomatic circles. On 1.I.1753 AN, Shireroth formally delivered its withdrawal from the Raspur Pact, ending an alliance that dated to the Pact's founding. The withdrawal, long anticipated after Shireroth's accession to the Apollonian-Benacian Community, nonetheless prompted expressions of regret across the Federation.

*"We received the notification with profound disappointment," Secretary of State Jean-Michel Durand said in a statement. *"Shireroth was a founding partner in collective security arrangements that have preserved peace for generations. We respect their sovereign decision while mourning what has been lost."

The ABC's formation, combined with the collapse of the Xaiville Convention that had provided a framework for relations among non-aligned states, has accelerated a broader realignment. Yet officials emphasized countervailing developments: the Concord Alliance Treaty Organization continues to expand, and the Fontainebleau Summit has sparked sustained diplomatic engagement among Raspur Pact members aimed at reconstituting the alliance's institutional framework.

*"The international system is in flux," said Prof. Jean-Baptiste Moreau, Chair of Political Science at the University of Punta Santiago. *"New Alexandrians see their government managing that uncertainty competently. In such moments, incumbents benefit."

Domestically, the government achieved a quiet resolution to the Operation Faun controversy that had dogged the administration since 1750 AN. Court filings made public this month revealed that the government reached a settlement with Sofia Reyes, the University of Cardenas student whose lawsuit had threatened to expose internal deliberations about the mounted police operation against campus protesters. Terms were not disclosed, though sources familiar with the matter described the sum as "substantial." The settlement included no admission of wrongdoing.

The resolution drew immediate criticism from opposition figures. "They bought their way out of accountability," said DSP deputy Carlos Medina. "The families who were injured, the students who were terrorized, the faculty who were surveilled, they all deserve to know who gave those orders and why. Instead, the government wrote a check and closed the file."

CGA Coordinator Elena Svensson, whose party had repeatedly urged accountability, offered measured remarks. "The settlement brings closure for Ms. Reyes, and we respect her decision to accept it," Svensson said. "Our concerns about institutional accountability remain. We will continue to press for reforms to prevent similar incidents in the future."

The settlement removes the lawsuit's discovery process, which had been expected to produce documents potentially embarrassing to senior officials. Interior Secretary Astrid Thorsen, Secretary of Research and Development Alexander Melas, and Secretary of Government Efficiency Serina Bakhshi had all been mentioned in connection with the operation's authorization. None faced formal sanction, and all remain in their positions.

AJNA leader Leila Bensouda framed the issue as an election question. "If the voters want accountability, they will have to deliver it themselves in 1754 AN," she said. "This government has made clear it will not hold itself responsible. We will."

The housing sector presents a more complicated picture. Construction activity reached record levels in 1752 AN, with housing starts exceeding any year since the Federation's founding. The National Housing Acceleration Act's ambitious targets have driven an unprecedented expansion of the housing stock, particularly in mid-sized cities where land availability and streamlined permitting combined to enable rapid development.

Yet affordability has worsened in major urban centers. The Urban Housing Price Index, which tracks prices in the Federation's twelve largest metropolitan areas, has continued to climb despite the supply expansion. Critics argue that the Act's demand-side subsidies and the Federal Bank's accommodative credit policies have inflated prices faster than new construction can relieve pressure.

"We are building more housing than ever before in our history," said HUD Secretary Carlos Vargas. "The market is working. Supply takes time to affect prices, particularly in constrained urban environments."

A separate concern has emerged in financial circles. The FBNA's quarterly stability report flagged growing exposure to property-backed securities across the banking sector. The instruments, authorized under the National Housing Acceleration Act to channel investment capital into construction, have proliferated rapidly. The report noted that while current default rates remain low, a significant economic shock could trigger cascading effects.

"We are monitoring the situation closely," said FBNA Governor Lucienne Martel. "The fundamentals remain sound, but prudent supervision requires attention to tail risks."

The political landscape shows the familiar contours of New Alexandrian politics with some notable shifts. The FHP's dominance has, if anything, increased, with Premier Montero's net favorability rising to +10.0%. The party's successful management of international transitions, from the Empress Vadoma I's death and Queen Adelaide's accession as Empress Clara to the Shireroth withdrawal, has reinforced perceptions of governmental competence.

The CGA's decline reflects the perennial challenge facing junior coalition partners. Coordinator Svensson remains personally popular, with net favorability of +23.0%, but her party has struggled to articulate a distinct identity while sharing power with the FHP. The Operation Faun settlement, in particular, may have cost the party credibility among voters who supported it as a reformist force.

The opposition presents a mixed picture. AJNA's slight gain to 23.0% suggests Leila Bensouda's consolidation of the coalition continues, though the "People's Deal" platform unveiled last year has not yet produced a breakthrough. Bensouda's personal favorability, while down slightly from its VIII.1752 AN peak, remains strong at +30.0%.

The most intriguing movement appears in the Federal Consensus Party's gradual recovery. Under Francisco Gabaza's leadership, the party has climbed from the single digits to 6.0%, a modest gain but a meaningful one for a party that seemed destined for irrelevance after the Santini scandals. More significantly, Gabaza's "No Opinion" rating has fallen from 50% to 44%, suggesting voters are beginning to form views about his leadership. Those views are favorable: his net rating has climbed from +2.0% to +8.0%.

*"Gabaza is doing something unusual in our politics," Dr. Delacroix observed. "He is building support slowly, issue by issue, without the dramatic gestures that usually drive political attention. Whether that approach can scale remains to be seen, but the trajectory is positive."

The special question on Queen Adelaide's accession as Empress Clara I revealed broad public support for her decision to accept the Natopian throne. Seventy-one percent approved, with only 12% expressing disapproval. The result likely reflects both the Queen's personal popularity and widespread understanding that the Treaty of Dynastic Separation prevents any constitutional complication.

Looking ahead, the political calendar offers few obvious inflection points before the 1754 AN general election. The government's position appears secure, its principal vulnerabilities either resolved or contained. Yet Prof. Moreau cautioned against complacency.

"Five months ago, the FHP was at 45% and Operation Faun was an open wound," he noted. "Today they are at 46.5% and the lawsuit is settled. But five months from now, the housing market could crack, or the international situation could deteriorate, or something entirely unexpected could emerge. Eighteen months is a long time in politics."

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▸ OOC: Story Summary & Impact Assessment

TL;DR: The first IOP/NBC News poll of 1753 AN shows the FHP at 46.5% (+1.5), with the governing coalition at 63.5% combined. Shireroth formally withdrew from the Raspur Pact on 1.I.1753 AN, ending a founding alliance. The Operation Faun lawsuit was settled with Sofia Reyes for an undisclosed sum with no admission of wrongdoing, drawing opposition criticism. Housing construction continues at record levels but urban affordability worsens; the FBNA flagged property-backed securities exposure as a potential risk. The CGA fell to 17.0% while the FCP continued its recovery under Francisco Gabaza. Queen Adelaide's accession as Empress Clara drew 71% approval.

Impact: Political Stability: ▲ +1|Gov't Approval: ▲ +1|International Relations: ▼ -1

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