Floria presidential election, 1750

1750 Confederate States presidential election

1750
270 members of the Electoral College 136 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
Nominee Ronald Trueman Jr. Imogen Walsh Party UPR Social Democratic Party of Floria Home state Southern Ontario Southcliff Running mate Rachael Halpburg Sophia Patel
1750 electoral map, Inclusion of Northcliff Federal District for the first time.
President before election Michael Hutchinson UPR Elected President TBD TBD

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Confederate States around 1750 to elect a president and vice president for a term of 12 years. The victors of the election are expected to be inaugurated in 1751.

Before his resignation during the Second Florian Civil War, due to provisions set by the constitution, Michael Hutchinson was ineligible for a third term after winning the 1727 and 1738 presidential elections.

As the vice president of the Confederate States, Ronald Trueman Jr. was promoted to President is likely to be considered the frontrunner for the UPR nomination for president, with governor Gerald Tucker of Southland closely behind.

Imogen Walsh, Congresswoman of Southcliff 5th District and Helen Howell, Governor of Kingsland are contenders for the Social Democratic presidential nomination. Victor Kessler, leader of a growing minor party, the Florian National Vanguard Party was also set to be a contender in the election however was banned after his party was designated as a extremist organisation under the National Stability Act.

Primaries for the presidential candidates will take place in 1748.

Background

Before the outbreak of the Second Florian Civil War Michael Hutchinson was preparing to conclude his second and final term in office in 1750 due to term limits. The political landscape in Floria has shifted dramatically after the war. The United Party of the Republic, despite holding a significant historical presence, is grappling with the aftermath of significant losses in the previous election and its weak governance during the war. These losses have left the UPR at its lowest approval rating in history, facing an uphill battle to secure both the Presidency and Congress in the upcoming election.

Social democracy at the UPR's expense has surged in popularity, particularly among the working class and minority communities, who are advocating for stronger protections of abortion rights and LGBT+ rights, both of which have become central issues in the national conversation. These groups, once politically sidelined, now have a louder voice and are increasingly leaning toward the SDP and its candidates who promise to deliver on these progressive social issues.

Conservatism, once a dominant force, is starting to show signs of fatigue. The traditional conservative values that have long shaped the UPR's platform are no longer resonating with an electorate that is becoming more diverse and progressive. The party's inability to adapt to the changing political climate has contributed to its waning popularity.

With the UPR's future at stake, the party faces a critical crossroads. While the potential still exists for the UPR to secure the presidency and hold onto power in Congress, it will require a major shift in strategy and messaging to capture the support of an electorate that is increasingly favouring social democratic ideals. Whether the UPR can adapt and reconnect with the public or if new, progressive forces will rise to dominate the political landscape remains to be seen.

Electoral system

Ronald Trueman Junior is the incumbent president after Michael Hutchinson‘s resignation during the Second Florian Civil War.

Electoral map numbers

The president and vice president of the Confederate States are elected through the Electoral College, a group of 270 presidential electors who congregate to vote for the president and vice president. The number of electors in the Electoral College is determined by the total number of senators and representatives with an additional three representatives for Northcliff. Electors cast votes for the president and vice president; the winner is elected through a majority of 136 votes. If the election ends in a tie, a contingent election occurs, in which the House of Representatives votes on the president and the Senate votes on the vice president. The states use a winner-take-all system in which states award all of their electors to the winner of the popular vote.

Presidential candidates are selected in a presidential primary, conducted through primary elections. The results of primary elections, run by state governments, bind convention delegates to candidates.

Article Two of the Confederate States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the Confederate States and have been a Florian resident for at least 14 years. The Constitution forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. President Hutchinson is ineligible to seek a third term.

Electoral map

Most states in Floria are not highly competitive in presidential elections, often voting consistently for the same party due to longstanding demographic differences. In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can swing between parties from election to election. These states are usually located in the east such as Southcliff. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. For this election, the swing states are expected to be the Mesounese states, Sri Alba and Southcliff all of which were narrowly won by Hutchinson in 1738. Northcliff Federal District is also expected to be swung either way.

Blue states are states that consistently vote United Republican at the national level. The blue wall has rarely been broken, as these states rarely swing. These states include Southland, South Ontario and Pentucky The last significant breach of the blue wall occurred in the 1707 election.

Nominations

United Party of the Republic

Nominee

1738 ticket
Ronald Trueman Jr.	Rachael Halpburg
for President	for Vice President
9th President of Floria	6th Vice President of Floria

Social Democratic Party of Floria

Nominee

1738 ticket
Imogen Walsh	Sophia Patel
for President	for Vice President
Representative for Southcliff	Representative for Sri Alba

FNVP

The Ultranationalist far right party, the Florian National Vanguard Party unanimously chose leader Victor Kessler as its presidential candidate with Anton Voss selected as Vice Presidential candidate. Victor Kessler started a campaign with a vision of postwar Floria full rebuilt, free from leftist extremism and of pure Florian blood. In 1746, the party was banned from running in the election over fears of extremism.

Nominee

1750 ticket
Victor Kessler	Anton Voss
for President	for Vice President
President of Floria	Vice President of Floria
File:Vanguard for the Future.png

Opinion polling

UPR Primaries

Date	Polling Organisation	Trueman Jr.	Tucker	Popov	Mitchell	Brown
1740.5	FBC	27%	23%	20%	20%	10%
1740.6	Floria Today	20%	30%	20%	20%	10%
1741.11	Floria Today	70%	30%

SDP Primaries

Date	Polling Organisation	Walsh	Howell	Willis	Hamilton	Nixon
1740.5	FBC	23%		35%	22%	20%
1740.6	Floria Today	31%	35%	N/A
1740.11	Floria Today	45%	30%	15%

General election

Trueman Jr. vs. Walsh

Poll source	Date	Sample size	Trueman Jr.	Walsh	Undecided
1740.6	FBC	1000	43%	47%	12%
1740.10	Floria Today	1000	45%	50%	5%
1741.4	Floria Today	1000	49%	50%	1%
1741.7	FBC	1000	41%	58%	1%
1741.9	FBC	1000	42%	52%	6%
1743.5	Floria Today	1000	45%	48%	7%
1748.12	Floria Today	1000	50%	42%	8%